Applied approaches to financial risks forming uncertainties’ determination and consideration

Abstract

Investigated is the impact of various nature uncertainties onto the financial risks formation with the study of possible ways to preventing the uncertainty emergence and to reduce their impact on financial systems. A method for estimating the losses from various risk degree financial decisions implementation is proposed. Based on the real enterprises examples, the approaches to losses evaluation and reduction when high financial risks are demonstrated. Both uncertainties and possible risks, such as demand and supply fluctuations, obligations impairment, decline in suppliers’ or partners’ financial stability, are analysed. To evaluate the uncertainties constructed are the mathematical models based on the Bayesian networks, logistic regression, univariate and correlation analysis. It is shown that the uncertainties timely analysis does allow to evaluate the possible financial risks’ probabilities and to elaborate recommendations for their impact reducing.