Prognostication by the analytical model of trend of dynamics of electric consumption of city

Abstract

Existing methods of forecasting of power consumption of the city, the region at different hierarchical levels require sophisti-cated software, the value of retrospective database samples, accounting of the influence of meteorological conditions etc, which greatly complicates the process of predicting energy costs. Aim of the research is the analysis of the trends of electric power supply of the city over the previous period and the determination with simplified method of the expected demand of energy for mining companies in the future. This provides the opportunity to plan the delivery of fuel for the future. Research methodology is based on the use of analytical trend model of information of power consumption of Odessa over previous 10 years. The results of prognosis on 2018 in comparison to 2013 show that an annual consumption will be increased on 8,07 %, monthly most, on the average, will be increased in a winter period ― on 7,07 %, in autumn ― on 5,17 %. Such tendency of increase of electro-consumption will demand the increase of energy resource in 2018 on 79,8 thousands of t c. f., in winter months ― on 21.3 thousands of t c. f., in autumn ― on 12,4 thousands of t c. f. This method of prognostication can be used for any city, region.