Issues of predictingthe impact of nuclear power facilities accidents’ radiation consequences
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15276/opu.2.66.2022.08Keywords:
radiation emissions, dose loads, ionizing radiation, biological effect, neutron-physical modelAbstract
The analysis for history’s biggest nuclear accidents consequences, at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and Fukushima-Daihichi NPP, identified various radiation dose loads on liquidators, civilians and environment. Predicting the radiation subsequent effects on biological and ecological objects depends both on the radiation loads range and various other factors not related directly to the accidents’ radiation consequences. The analysis of stochastic approaches to predicting the radiation impact revealed their limited applicability cause of sufficiently adequate and substantiated statistical databases about the accidents-produced radiation doses negative effects. The analysis of deterministic methods to predicting that impact determined their limitation due to significant quantitative and qualitative discrepancies between methods caused by the difference in neutron-physical “dose effect” models and those methods experimental verification conditions difference. To predict the NPP accidents radiation impact, important is to develop an alternative risk-oriented approach based on the integrated use of stochastic and deterministic methods, taking into account their applicability limitations. The unacceptable negative event “upper” limit probability area depending on the radiation doses from the accidents, is determined by stochastic methods, and the “lower” limit probability area is determined by deterministic ones. Such event probability maximum value is determined by the maximum allowed dose at radiation sickness onset. The obtained results can serve in a basis for objective assessments of civilians informing about the consequences of radiation accidents at NPPs.
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