A technique of forecasting inefficient negative investments in Ukraine

Abstract

The paper reviews a methodology of inefficient capital outflow forecasting in Ukraine, as one of the new instruments for investment activity revivification under the system crisis conditions. An analogy is made between the foreseeable and unexpected losses in crediting as well as the efficient and inefficient capital outflows in the form of reserve funds accrual and subsequent reverse procedure. Phenomenological approach and generalization of the experience in negative investment analysis are applied. Exposed is the substantiation of phenomenological approach in choosing one of the proposed beta distribution options with economic interpretation of this approach development. Considered is the maximum entropy principle as a stochastic dominance revealed therein.