The project status morphological indicator and method of its express evaluation

Abstract

Every crisis intervention in a project actually destroys its original plan – the latter is more and more different from reality, and if there are many such interventions, there can be nothing left from the original plan! The models used in the initial planning of the project become inadequate, which immediately and negatively affects the accuracy and effectiveness of anti-crisis morphological decisions. The project team, after each structural intervention, should quickly begin to create a new plan, which should be provided with a new methodology of crisis management project based on morphological rapid analysis of organizational and technical systems to assess the current status of the project. For crisis management of any feedback entity, it is necessary to be able quickly measure the parameters of the state of that object in response to management intervention. Therefore, the purpose of scientific research, in which the complex object was project management, was to create a method of rapid measurement of the project status using the first proposed morphological (structural) indicator. The system of crisis management of complex technical systems is built on the basis of feedback on deviation of the current flow of the project from the planned one. A new complex parameter M is proposed, which uniquely and representatively reflects the morphological deviation of the current flow of the project from the planned one. The indicator is the product of the complex probability of a project’s ability to overcome the effects of a crisis without stopping or changing its overall structure and the cost of such a solution. Complex probability is calculated as the square root of the sum of the squares of crisis compensation probabilities by technological, variational, and creative methods. This made it possible to use this indicator as a criterion for the need to start the process of morphological response to the respective crises. The compo-nents of the complex parameter M and methods of their express measurement and calculation are determined. Based on the research, a scheme for the computer support subsystem of decision making in the planning and execution of the Copper Continuous Casting Projects (COCAST) crisis management project was developed. The practical use of the results of the study was carried out in the operating company at its own expense. The planned construction time was reduced by 7.4 % and cost by 5.9 %. The production of the new workshop made it possible to increase the competitiveness of the enterprise.